I was recently asked to estimate the effort required to develop materials for an instructor-led training course. Accurate estimating is important in order to have a successful project for many reasons. So, how do we know? How can we guess-timate, let alone provide an accurate estimate of effort?
Usually, when someone asks “How long will this take?” they are really asking two questions. First, they are asking, “How much will it cost?” because they need to know how many billable hours of service they need to contract with me for. And second, they are asking, “When will it be done?” to know when they can start teaching the class. Let’s look at the first question in this article.
To estimate instructional design and development effort, I have developed the following “rule of thumb” matrix. The two 
most important aspects of estimating are the complexity of what you need to teach, and what you have to draw upon for content.
For example, a one-hour training on something well known, with existing content readily available, that is simple in nature – that is simple technically, or simple physically, or simple conceptually – should take about 10 hours to develop. That should give the developer sufficient time to analyze the material, design and develop the material, the layout, the agenda, the exercises, and so forth, including responding to reviews and feedback.
For a more complex subjects — either more complex conceptually, or more complex delivery formats, or even more complex because of corporate politics — additional time is required. Each level of complexity need to be looked at to determine its impact on the project.
Another question to ask about subject matter is, “Does the instructor already know the material?” If so, the project will be less complex than if we are developing material to be taught by someone new to the material. In the first case, simple Instructor Notes will do, but for the later a more complete Guide to Instruction may be required.
The same goes for the maturity of the content. How well known is it? Or do we have to make it up as we go along? Is there an existing body of content to draw upon? The more material already exists for the subject matter, the quicker it will be to develop. But if we are teaching a course on “best practices”, and those practices have not yet been clearly defined, that subject matter is complex. A good example of this is newly developed software systems. By definition, if the software is not yet in general use, it is complex.
Finally, remember that this does not include time of other people, such as reviewers and approvers, and this does not mean that the training will be ready in 30 hours from right now! I’ll write about the question, “When will it be ready?” in a later blog.
Best to you,
Barbara
